Thursday 4 April 2013

"Red Flags"

Peter Hodson
Our editor has posted a new blog post on the 5i Research website...

Watch Out for these "Red Flags"  

Please go to https://www.5iresearch.ca/blog/watch-out-for-these-red-flags to read the full post.

Tuesday 2 April 2013

Question of the Week!

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

by RM Group of Richardson GMP

Considering where equity markets are currently trading, is it safe to say the concerns about Cyprus were overblown?

The simple answer is no. There was certainly a great deal of risk surrounding the bailout of Cyprus and that risk still exists. However, markets did not sell off dramatically as some expected, because the exposure of European financial institutions to Cyprus was not as high as Greece or Portugal. Therefore, hits to capital levels thus far have been limited, sovereign financing is still available and liquidity within the European financial system has not dried up. To give you a graphical illustration of the limited impact of Cyprus, we present a chart that we introduced a couple of weeks ago illustrating 10 year bond yields in the "troubled periphery” nations of the eurozone. As you can see over the past two weeks, yields may have moved up marginally in all five countries, but they certainly did not jump to the same extent they did when all ran into financial difficulty. The real damage hasn’t been done to liquidity, but instead to confidence in the European banking system and the expected safety of what is believed to be insured deposits. While we don’t expect the same approach of the Cyprus bailout to be applied to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain as they are already well into their bailout process, we do hear rumours of concern in countries like Slovenia and Malta where going after depositors could be a course of action if either of these countries run into trouble. But if the Eurozone was trying to create the image of a strong and reliable banking system within the continent, their approach to solving the problem in Cyprus has failed miserably in promoting such an image. The initial bailout plan, which would have gone after all depositors, has done nothing but create distrust of European officials and of the banking system in general. Such mistrust leads to money leaving various countries or even the continent, and regaining this trust will take a very long time. From this perspective we can easily conclude that fears were not overblown whatsoever

Source: Richardson GMP Limited
The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Richardson GMP Limited is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.